Lies , Super Lies and Statistics
It is a lie, damn lie ! How confident are you ? Well, damn confident. Ok, can you go ahead and confront him . Of course YES - but why should I ? I can see that you are not so confident :), otherwise you had nothing to lose. How do you claim that ? Statistics and nothing but Statistcs !
Well, here is what we can call a classic marriage of lies and statistics ! What was the confidence interval of the probability that the stance you have taken in accusing Mr X is is highly likely ( close to 1). I can tell you for sure that you can't possibly confront him until your confidence interval is more than 95% !.
Alright, so above para might sound gibberish to some and familiar to some ! Point is , how much of real world problems can be solved by complex mathematics. It definitely gives you lot of fun to convert these problems into equations and numbers - Doesn't it !
And how do you solve those complex problems in class anyways - if not the real worl problems. Yeah - now that is interesting one - coz all of us have gone through the grind in our lives where classroom - things seemed quite clear but the moment we open the book and prepare for exams, brain is one big clutter-box. This is especially true when we are talking about lot of mathematical complex problems.
Heuristics - sure some of you have heard about this one ! And there was one mathematician George Polya who had lot of problem as a student to understand how the complex problems were solved by SUPER-MATHEMATICIANS and how they arrived at the FINAL answer which is 1 inch x 1 inch space ! How Bizarre - it was a case for him where his teachers told him that it is too complex, not to re-invent the wheel and more importantly work on top of what others have already done ! None was willing to explain those internal gory details.
Finally, Geroge wrote a book called "How to Solve" for his next generation of students - yes he also became a prof ! He wanted to be different ! Well - he did ! Instead of teaching students on how his progeny had reached to those 1 inch x 1 inch solutions, he taught them how to avoid that agony of figuring out the crux- in much simpler ways of looking at problems and formulating solutions.
Well, here is what we can call a classic marriage of lies and statistics ! What was the confidence interval of the probability that the stance you have taken in accusing Mr X is is highly likely ( close to 1). I can tell you for sure that you can't possibly confront him until your confidence interval is more than 95% !.
Alright, so above para might sound gibberish to some and familiar to some ! Point is , how much of real world problems can be solved by complex mathematics. It definitely gives you lot of fun to convert these problems into equations and numbers - Doesn't it !
And how do you solve those complex problems in class anyways - if not the real worl problems. Yeah - now that is interesting one - coz all of us have gone through the grind in our lives where classroom - things seemed quite clear but the moment we open the book and prepare for exams, brain is one big clutter-box. This is especially true when we are talking about lot of mathematical complex problems.
Heuristics - sure some of you have heard about this one ! And there was one mathematician George Polya who had lot of problem as a student to understand how the complex problems were solved by SUPER-MATHEMATICIANS and how they arrived at the FINAL answer which is 1 inch x 1 inch space ! How Bizarre - it was a case for him where his teachers told him that it is too complex, not to re-invent the wheel and more importantly work on top of what others have already done ! None was willing to explain those internal gory details.
Finally, Geroge wrote a book called "How to Solve" for his next generation of students - yes he also became a prof ! He wanted to be different ! Well - he did ! Instead of teaching students on how his progeny had reached to those 1 inch x 1 inch solutions, he taught them how to avoid that agony of figuring out the crux- in much simpler ways of looking at problems and formulating solutions.
How to Solve It describes the following common and simple heuristics, which serve as useful illustrative examples:
- If you are having difficulty understanding a problem, try drawing a picture.
- If you can't find a solution, try assuming that you have a solution and seeing what you can derive from that ("working backward").
- If the problem is abstract, try examining a concrete example.
- Try solving a more general problem first (the "inventor's paradox": the more ambitious plan may have more chances of success).
So, next time when you are not "So confident" of your "Claim" - TRY DRAWING A VENN DIAGRAM :) OR ASSUME A SOLUTION and see REPURCUSSIONS - you having broken relationship or bone blah blah ! I am sure - HEURISTICS will solve some of your problems much better than complex Mathematics equations !
All the best !
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